Département de Physique Nucléaire

Following what was done with the International System of Units (SI), standardization of the evaluation of the uncertainty in measurement and modelling has been in progress for two decades [1]. This traditional approach assumes that a large number of data is available. But when one has to deal with a small numbers, other approaches based on Bayesian inference are necessary. In this presentation, I will first introduce the evaluation of uncertainty according to the international standards and Bayesian approaches. After this pedagogical introduction, I will present an application to research as there is a general trend to call for a careful evaluation of the uncertainties in modelling [2]. In particular, I will present our preliminary work on the estimation of the residue cross-sections of super-heavy elements [3], 250 years after the publication of Bayes theorem. 

[1] Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), http://www.bipm.org

[2] Editorial: Uncertainty Estimates, Physical Review A83, 040001 (2011)

[3] H. Lü and D. Boilley, EPJ Web of Conferences 62, 03002 (2013)