Following what was done with the International System of Units (SI), standardization of the evaluation of the uncertainty in measurement and modelling has been in progress for two decades [1]. This traditional approach assumes that a large number of data is available. But when one has to deal with a small numbers, other approaches based on Bayesian inference are necessary. In this presentation, I will first introduce the evaluation of uncertainty according to the international standards and Bayesian approaches. After this pedagogical introduction, I will present an application to research as there is a general trend to call for a careful evaluation of the uncertainties in modelling [2]. In particular, I will present our preliminary work on the estimation of the residue cross-sections of super-heavy elements [3], 250 years after the publication of Bayes theorem.
[1] Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), http://www.bipm.org
[2] Editorial: Uncertainty Estimates, Physical Review A83, 040001 (2011)
[3] H. Lü and D. Boilley, EPJ Web of Conferences 62, 03002 (2013)
